The Post 2030 Landscape: A World of Asymmetry and Realignment

The Post 2030 Landscape: A World of Asymmetry and Realignment

Our new report The Post-2030 Landscape: A World of Asymmetry and Realignment, reveals a complex and evolving landscape in the post-2030 era. The report explores 15 priority trends, three high-risk uncertainties and presents three plausible scenarios for 2035: state-led multipolar cooperation, multi-actor cooperation and transactional cooperation. It also highlights key strategies for transforming global cooperation, inviting stakeholders to rethink their assumptions and adopt bold, collaborative solutions.

Available in English and French, the report offers valuable insights for proactive planning and strategic foresight.

The Future of Global Development: How Social Entrepreneurs Are Leading the Way

The Future of Global Development: How Social Entrepreneurs Are Leading the Way

Interview with Marie-Lisa Dacaney, President of the Institute for Social Entrepreneurship in Asia

In an era where global challenges are becoming increasingly complex and interconnected, traditional models of development and cooperation are evolving. That is the conviction behind our Landscape Analysis of the International Cooperation Sector, a report highlighting emerging trends and transformations underway in global cooperation.

One of the most promising trends gaining momentum in this space, and building upon the insights from our report, is the rise of social entrepreneurship. Defined by its dual mission of financial sustainability and social impact, social entrepreneurship is reshaping how we think about solving the world’s most pressing issues.

To delve deeper into this emerging trend, Cooperation Canada’s Research and Program Officer, Andy Ouedraogo, interviews Marie-Lisa Dacanay, President of the Institute for Social Entrepreneurship in Asia. Marie-Lisa, who also serves on the Strategic Advisory Committee of the Global Cooperation Futures Initiative, led by Cooperation Canada and funded by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), provides valuable insights on the subject.

How significant is Social Entrepreneurship for Global Development Cooperation and how prominent is this trend?

The Global State of Social Enterprise report (April 2024) estimates 10 million social enterprises worldwide, generating USD 2 trillion annually and creating 200 million jobs, representing about 3% of businesses globally. In Asia, social enterprises make up a larger share, such as in the Philippines, where they constitute over 15% of enterprises. Social enterprises contribute to all Sustainable Development Goals, particularly by reducing poverty and inequality. Notably, half are led by women, compared to just one in five conventional businesses. These enterprises are essential in empowering women in agriculture and the informal economy, where they have traditionally been invisible and excluded. Social entrepreneurship plays a key role in global development, transforming the lives and livelihoods of the marginalized.

What are some key examples of success stories of social entrepreneurship initiatives in Asia contributing to development outcomes?

Grameen Bank pioneered microfinance, driving global financial inclusion. However, lesser-known success stories are also inspiring social entrepreneurship platforms in Asia. In partnership with the Association of Progressive Communications (APC), ISEA leads a platform focused on Technological Innovations for Sustainable Development. This platform promotes community-centered connectivity initiatives, which act as social enterprises in the ICT sector, aiming to bridge the digital divide and connect underserved communities across the region.

A Community Connectivity Initiative

The Common Room Networks Foundation, Kasepuhan Ciptagelar Village Government, and Awinet ISP launched a community-owned internet infrastructure connecting 43 hamlets and 3,700 people by 2024. Supported by APC, the initiative increased women’s internet use from 30% to 50%, supported remote education, and disaster preparedness during COVID-19. It also subsidized internet for eight schools, created jobs and fostered local digital skills development, empowering the community to sustain and expand operations while using the internet to improve livelihoods.

Transformational Partnerships and Women’s Economic Empowerment in Agricultural Value Chains

ISEA co-convenes the Women’s Empowerment, Livelihoods and Food platform, promoting Benchmarks and Guidelines for Transformational Partnerships in Agricultural Value Chains. These standards, based on best practices from Southeast Asian social enterprises, improve small-scale producers’ livelihoods and empower women. The Guidelines offer policies for governments to support these benchmarks across agricultural value chains.

The Alter Trade Initiative

The Alter Trade Initiative demonstrates an empowerment model for transforming about 800 women and men agricultural workers turned agrarian reform beneficiaries in sugar plantations to become farmer-entrepreneurs and leaders and members of cooperatives that over time diversified their crops and sources of income, increased their assets and capacities to improve their means of living and moved a majority of their households out of poverty.

The Bote Central and PCA Initiative

This initiative empowered over 5,000 farmers, women, and youth to engage in sustainable coffee production and set up 50+ community-based coffee enterprises. Through PCA’s Coffee for Life Program, they developed and marketed their own brands, benefiting from a greater share of the coffee value chain’s wealth.

How do you see social entrepreneurship shaping the future landscape of global development cooperation, and what challenges or barriers do social entrepreneurs face in driving positive change?

The 2023 SDG Report highlights that 85% of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are off track, stagnating, or regressing, placing the 2030 Agenda in jeopardy. Social entrepreneurship could be a key strategy to accelerate progress, but its potential remains under-recognized by many governments, especially in developing countries. Global development cooperation can play a vital role in scaling the impact of social enterprises by addressing challenges like inadequate financing and the lack of supportive policies.

A two-pronged approach is proposed: first, direct investment in social enterprises to scale and replicate successful initiatives, and second, partnering with committed governments to create policies and programs that support and incentivize the sector. Asia, with its existing multistakeholder platforms and interest from agencies like the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, could serve as a pilot region for this global development cooperation initiative, helping to mainstream social entrepreneurship as a transformative strategy for achieving the SDGs.

As social entrepreneurship continues to gain traction, its potential to reshape global development cooperation is undeniable. By addressing systemic challenges and empowering marginalized communities, it offers a transformative path forward. However, to fully unlock its impact, governments, development organizations, and private sector actors must work together to create supportive environments and scale successful initiatives. The future of global cooperation may well depend on embracing these innovative approaches to tackle our most pressing global challenges.

Regional Perspectives Report on Signs of Change and Visions of the Future of Global Cooperation

Regional Perspectives Report on Signs of Change and Visions of the Future of Global Cooperation

Cooperation Canada is proud to present the Regional Perspectives Report, a new release from the Global Cooperation Futures Initiative. The report reveals valuable insights and perspectives gathered from a series of regional dialogues conducted in Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Latin America and the Middle East and North African regions. It sheds light on critical signs of change at the regional and global levels, and unveils visions for global cooperation, each uniquely shaped by regional dynamics and historical contexts.

Explore the spectrum of perspectives and aspirations here.

 

Futures Initiative Reflection Report 2023

Futures Initiative Reflection Report 2023

One year has passed since Cooperation Canada embarked on its first ever strategic foresight project, the Futures Initiative. Since then, significant strides have been made, and in this report, we reflect on our journey, showcasing our advancements to date, insights gleaned from employing strategic foresight, and the methodologies instrumental in studying the global landscape, and identifying emerging trends, signals, and drivers of change within the international cooperation sector. The report underscores the indispensable role of foresight in navigating the complexities of the international development sector. It is our aspiration that this reflection report not only offers valuable insights but also serves as a guiding resource for organizations embarking on their own foresight endeavours. 

Reflecting on the Past Year Navigating Cooperation Canada’s First Strategic Foresight Project

Reflecting on the Past Year Navigating Cooperation Canada’s First Strategic Foresight Project

A Conversation with Cooperation Canada’s Research and Program Officer, Andy Ouedraogo.

Andy Ouedraogo is the Research and Program Officer for Cooperation Canada’s first strategic foresight project, the Global Cooperation Futures Initiative, funded by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC). One year after the launch of the project, Andy recounts how far she’s come and presents a new report, the Landscape Analysis of the International Cooperation Sector.

You joined Cooperation Canada as Research and Program Officer to lead our first ever project on strategic foresight funded by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC). Now, a year in, where are we at?

It has been quite the journey and I’m happy to say that one year in, we have achieved quite a few milestones including the recent conclusion of our research-intensive phase commemorated with the launch of a Landscape Analysis of the International Cooperation Sector; a scan of emerging trends and drivers of change. We’ve also engaged close to 220 Canadian and global international development actors in our workshops, focus group discussions, and surveys, with a view to co-create knowledge and include as many voices and perspectives as possible.

Can you tell us how you managed to navigate the complex landscape of foresight?

Anticipating the future can be daunting. Leading this project feels like building a car while driving it. We are not only steering and navigating the vehicle but also installing components, fine-tuning the engine, and adjusting the design—all while on the move. During the first few months, the fear of not getting it right loomed like a shadow over my eager enthusiasm. Anticipating the future? Who, me? But I’ve learned to shift my focus away from achieving pinpoint accuracy and towards embracing the iterative process of refining strategy, incorporating new insights as they surface, re-assessing methodologies and course correcting where needed.

Futures don’t follow a script, and plans will inevitably change. Rigid timelines and linear approaches are not the most responsive to change and would limit one’s ability to identify new trends and emerging issues that could potentially be disruptive. Being adaptable and working with a strategic foresight partner who embraces flexible and agile methodologies has been key to navigate uncertainties and keep our project on course.

I will also add that good foresight hinges on the diversity of the data set, including input from a wide range of stakeholders. By engaging diverse voices and perspectives, we gain a more comprehensive understanding of potential future trajectories. An example of how Cooperation Canada did this is through our regional dialogues, organized in partnership with regional networks of CSOs in five different regions. These dialogues were instrumental in validating existing domains based on regional nuances, challenges, and future aspirations for the sector. Moreover, they enabled us to incorporate intra-personal observational knowledge, derived from participants’ firsthand observations of local change and their perceptions of the future of development influenced by local and regional events and trends.

Any lessons you could share or pieces of advice for CSOs seeking to venture into foresight?

The realization that the future doesn’t have to be a single fated outcome has been profound. Recognizing this plurality has broadened my perspective and highlighted the complexity of plausible future scenarios and so my first piece of advice would be to embrace the plurality of the future.

Then, I would say scope wisely to ensure relevance, actionability, and impact. Future studies could easily take you in so many directions, especially when looking into global systems. You quickly realize how interconnected the world is and may end up trapped in a giant spider web not knowing in which direction to go. By defining clear boundaries and objectives, not only have we been able to tailor the foresight process to suit our specific needs and context, but we were also able to choose appropriate methodologies, approaches, and tools that are best suited to the Futures Initiative.

My final piece of advice would be to opt for an iterative approach and emphasize process over precision. It is so crucial to allow space for continuous learning, experimentation, and improvement to ensure the relevance of the outcome.

The fun of strategic foresight isn’t just in the outcome; it’s in the process. It’s in the laughter during brainstorming sessions, the “aha” moments when a trend clicks, and the shared excitement when a foresight exercise sparks creativity. So, embrace the process.

What does the future look like for you?

Well, the future is much closer than you would imagine. With just two workshops remaining, I look forward to co-creating three transformative scenarios for international cooperation with CSOs and other development actors, as well as studying and discussing their implications for the next 7-10 years.

Click here to register for our scenario creation workshop!

 

Navigating Emerging Trends in International Cooperation: Strategies for Civil Society Organizations

Navigating Emerging Trends in International Cooperation: Strategies for Civil Society Organizations

The outlook for international cooperation actors for the coming decade is both uncertain and turbulent. That is the conviction behind our newly launched Landscape Analysis of the International Cooperation Sector, a scan of emerging trends and drivers of change, and an output of Cooperation Canada’s Futures Initiative. The Report links emerging trends and challenges with direct implications for international cooperation actors.

Rather than feeling overwhelmed by those implications, Civil Society organizations (CSOs) can equip themselves to effectively navigate this increasingly volatile environment and adopt innovative strategies that not only address emerging trends but also empower them to prepare for a range of plausible futures. Let’s explore four key strategies a Civil Society organization (CSO) can use to navigate uncertainty.

 

Strategic Foresight

Strategic foresight is a systematic approach to exploring alternative futures, anticipating potential challenges, and identifying strategic opportunities for action. Unlike traditional planning methods, which often rely on past trends and linear projections, strategic foresight embraces uncertainty and complexity, empowering organizations to navigate ambiguity and make informed decisions in the face of uncertainty. In another blog, I dive deeper into the importance of strategic foresight for CSOs, click here to read more.

 

Integrative Thinking

Integrative thinking is the ability to bridge siloes, forge links, and overcome the imperative of making unpleasant choices by mapping out and leveraging the interdependencies within and between systems for long term impact and resilience. Integrative thinkers refrain from binary choices and instead embrace the complexity of issues by synthesizing intuition, reason, and imagination. By building comprehensive models that consider various variables and causal relationships, CSOs can develop holistic approaches that engage diverse stakeholders and systems. Integrative thinking allows organizations to creatively resolve tensions and uncover opportunities that may have been overlooked. Embracing this mindset can enable CSOs to tackle multifaceted challenges with agility and effectiveness.

 

Impact Communication

With shrinking funding pools, CSOs must increasingly demonstrate their impact and effectively communicate their results. Merely showcasing the worthiness of a mission is no longer sufficient; donors increasingly demand evidence of tangible outcomes and social returns on their investments. CSOs need to invest in impact communication, where resonant storytelling plays a pivotal role. By sharing compelling narratives that illustrate how their work confronts inequity and drives positive change, CSOs can cut through the noise and inspire meaningful engagement from donors and stakeholders. Transparency, authenticity, and empathy are key elements of impactful storytelling that resonate with audiences and foster trust in the organization’s mission.

 

Diversification of Revenue Streams

In today’s ever-changing economic landscape, it’s imperative for Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) to take proactive steps in diversifying their revenue sources to bolster financial resilience. Our comprehensive landscape report underscores a growing trend among organizations, as they turn to digital currencies and explore private financing options to mitigate financial risks and drive innovation and adaptability. This strategic move towards revenue diversification gains heightened significance in the face of challenges such as the sovereign debt crisis, diminishing contributions from Official Development Assistance, and the shrinking civic space.

 

In conclusion, navigating the evolving landscape of international development cooperation requires CSOs to embrace innovation, resilience, and accountability. By adopting integrative thinking and foresight, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing impact communication, CSOs can proactively address emerging trends and drive sustainable progress in their communities. As agents of change, CSOs have the opportunity to lead by example and shape a more equitable and inclusive future for all.